From energy transition to digital infrastructure: how private infrastructure is reshaping risk, valuation and opportunity for institutional investors.
Infrastructure is evolving faster than ever. The boundaries between traditional and new infrastructure assets are being redrawn by the energy transition, digital connectivity and shifting regulation. What once looked like a relatively stable, contract-driven asset class now requires a far more dynamic and forward-looking approach.
For institutional investors, this raises fundamental questions. How do you value infrastructure assets under uncertainty, structure deals that can withstand political and technological change, and balance risk, return and impact across greenfield and brownfield strategies? And where exactly do the most compelling opportunities lie today?
Few people are as well placed to answer these questions as Tim Whittaker, infrastructure investment expert with more than 20 years of experience across transactions, investment strategy and applied research. Together with Professor Cyril Demaria, he teaches the Amsterdam Institute of Finance program Investing in Private Infrastructure.
In this interview, Whittaker reflects on the structural shifts reshaping infrastructure, the pitfalls that can derail deals, the tools investors need today, and why even ‘safe’ regulated utilities deserve a fresh look.
“The asset class is evolving in ways that make it almost unrecognizable compared with ten years ago. This brings new challenges, but also exciting opportunities.”
– Tim Whittaker PhD, Director EDHEC Infra & Private Assets Research Institute
How energy transition and data are reshaping infrastructure
Infrastructure used to be associated mainly with long-lived, utility-like assets under stable contracts. That picture is now incomplete. Asked where he sees the biggest structural shifts in private infrastructure, Tim Whittaker starts with the scale and speed of change. “The asset class is evolving in ways that make it almost unrecognizable compared with ten years ago. This brings new challenges, but also exciting opportunities.”
For most infrastructure investors today, two themes dominate the conversation: the energy transition and the digital economy. “In the energy transition, investors used to focus primarily on grid transmission, distribution, and renewables. Today, the landscape is much broader and more interconnected. Storage, grid flexibility, smart meters, EV charging, and demand-side technologies are all becoming critical parts of the system. Infrastructure is no longer just about adding capacity, it is increasingly about enabling system stability.”
A similar shift is visible in the digital economy. “Here we see tremendous excitement around data-driven assets, and with good reason. These assets have effectively become essential infrastructure. Economically, they behave like traditional utilities, with high fixed costs and relatively stable cash flows, but the added dimension of technology-driven obsolescence and rapid demand growth makes them more dynamic and operationally intensive than what we used to classify as ‘infrastructure’.”
This changing reality also demands a different mindset from investors. “The traditional mindset of infrastructure investors, of owning long-lived assets under stable contracts, is changing. Instead, the most successful investors have shifted from being passive capital providers to becoming long-term stewards of complex companies to provide high-quality services for their customers.”
“What separates the best investors is a deep appreciation of governance, incentives, and operating capabilities.”
Beyond the ‘infrastructure equals stability’ narrative
Infrastructure investing often combines long horizons, political risk, and technical complexity. When asked about the most common pitfalls he sees in how investors assess or structure infrastructure deals, Whittaker does not hesitate: “The first is relying too heavily on the ‘infrastructure equals stability’ narrative. Even contracted assets can carry significant exposure to demand shifts, counterparty risk, input price volatility, and political recalibration. Stability needs to be demonstrated through evidence, not assumed.”
That cuts both ways: “A lot of value can be created by investors if they are able to manage or create stability for the asset. Again, a lot of value can be washed away if the investor isn’t wise that these are large, complex assets.”
A second pitfall, he says, is treating risk as static. “Many models rely on linear forecasts, yet the underlying drivers, political policies, technologies and consumer behaviour can evolve considerably over a 20- or 30-year horizon. A good investor needs to recognize this and manage their assets to maximize value when new risks arise.”
Finally, investors often underestimate operational complexity. “Large European utilities for instance are incredibly complex to run, yet in the past investors have paid a premium, only to lose their money.” What separates top-performing investors from the rest, according to him, is “a deep appreciation of governance, incentives, and operating capabilities.”
Program highlight: Investing in Private Infrastructure
Together with Professor Cyril Demaria, Tim Whittaker co-teaches Investing in Private Infrastructure at the Amsterdam Institute of Finance. This intensive two-day program is designed to give institutional investors a coherent, structured and in-depth understanding of how infrastructure investments really work. Learn more & enroll
Investing in Private Infrastructure is part of AIF’s Investing in Private Markets Series.
Bridging theory and practice: tools investors can use today
In the Investing in Private Infrastructure program, Whittaker and Professor Demaria guide participants through valuation, fund structures, and real-world case simulations. “One of the goals of the program is to give participants tools they can use immediately in their day-to-day work. We focus on bridging conceptual understanding with practical implementation.”
First, participants gain a much clearer view of how to value infrastructure assets under uncertainty. “We move beyond simple DCFs and look at how to incorporate regulatory pathways, technological change, and downside scenarios into cash-flow modelling. This is especially important today as markets confront issues such as cannibalization in renewables or changing regulatory incentives in utilities.”
The second pillar is deal structuring. “Through the case discussions, participants learn how governance rights, shareholder agreements, and risk-sharing mechanisms influence outcomes just as much as valuation. Understanding fund economics, incentives, and the GP-LP relationship is also a major part of building confidence when evaluating opportunities.”
Finally, the cases allow participants to think through real-world trade-offs. “Whether it’s a greenfield offshore wind development or the acquisition of an existing regulated utility, they see how operational, regulatory, and financial factors interact.” The aim, he explains, is “to develop the ability to ask better questions, challenge assumptions, and apply a more disciplined, evidence-based approach to infrastructure investing.”
Where opportunity lies today: renewables, digital and utilities
The program covers both greenfield and brownfield investments, across renewables, digital infrastructure and utilities. When it comes to where he sees the most compelling opportunities today, Whittaker takes a system wide view. “Across both greenfield and brownfield markets, opportunities today are shaped by macroeconomic conditions, policy direction, and infrastructure’s changing role in the real economy.”
“In renewables, the main challenge is no longer just building capacity but managing cannibalization. By cannibalization, we mean the effect where periods of very high renewable output – for example, on very sunny or windy days – push power prices down, sometimes even into negative territory. As more capacity is added, each additional megawatt can actually reduce the realised price for all existing producers.”
In that context, co-location and flexibility become crucial. “This is where co-location with storage becomes increasingly important. Pairing renewables with batteries or other flexibility solutions allows projects to shift output away from low-price periods towards times of higher system value. In my view, greenfield opportunities that combine renewables and storage as integrated flexibility assets rather than standalone generation, are likely to be one of the most attractive areas for new investment.”
The digital side tells a related story. “In digital infrastructure, demand for data, connectivity, and low-latency services continues to support investment in data centres and fibre. But these assets are becoming more operationally intensive, with power, cooling, and technology cycles all needing careful underwriting.”
In regulated utilities, higher inflation and the energy transition still support substantial investment needs, but the regulatory focus is shifting. “Regulators are increasingly focused on affordability. That places a premium on efficient operators and on regulatory frameworks that balance consumer protection with credible long-term investment signals.”
Balancing risk, return and impact therefore requires what Whittaker calls a system view. “The most compelling opportunities often lie where investors help solve system bottlenecks, such as flexibility in power markets or constraints in digital networks, rather than simply adding more of the same capacity.”
Lessons from regulation: revisiting assumptions about ‘safe’ utilities
Over more than two decades, Whittaker has worked at the intersection of research and practice in infrastructure investing. He highlights one recent development that has sharpened his thinking: “What really made me rethink an assumption is the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on utility regulation across Europe. For years, regulated networks were viewed as relatively stable because allowed returns were predictable and supported long-term investment. But with energy and utility bills becoming a political flashpoint, regulators in several EU markets have started to tighten allowed returns and put much more emphasis on affordability for households.”
This is more than a short-term adjustment. “Even well-regulated utilities are now exposed to a new form of regime risk driven not by ideology, but by social pressure. It highlights that stability in the sector is conditional: regulatory frameworks that once protected returns can adjust quickly when consumer affordability becomes a priority.”
For investors, the lesson is clear. “We need to stress-test valuations for scenarios where allowed returns fall, cost pass-through slows, or capex plans are scrutinized more heavily. The long-held assumption that regulated utilities provide steady, insulated returns needs to be revisited in light of these pressures.”
Read more:
> Redefining capital allocation: Prof. Cyril Demaria on mastering private markets
> Navigating the changing reality of Private Debt: expert Olya Klüppel on risk, resilience and long-term value
> Lessons from the new real estate cycle: expert Zoltan Szelyes on mastering complexity and finding value
Meet the expert
Tim Whittaker PhD, Director EDHEC Infra & Private Assets Research Institute
Tim Whittaker is an infrastructure investment expert with over 20 years of experience spanning transactions, investment strategy, and applied research. He has worked extensively across the infrastructure asset class, bringing a strong combination of academic insight and practical expertise to investment decision-making.
Whittaker holds a PhD in Finance from Griffith University, a Master of Finance (Business) from Queensland University of Technology, and dual Bachelor degrees in Commerce and Economics from the University of Queensland.
Throughout his career, he has contributed to advancing industry knowledge and practice in infrastructure investing, with a focus on rigorous analysis, innovation in portfolio construction, and bridging the gap between research and implementation.
Discover Tim Whittaker’s expertise and programs
About the Investing in Private Markets Series
AIF launches a new series of executive programs in spring 2026: Investing in Private Real Estate, Investing in Private Debt, and Investing in Private Infrastructure. At the heart of the series is Cyril Demaria, one of Europe’s foremost thinkers on private markets and author of multiple reference works, including Introduction to Private Equity, Debt and Real Assets and Asset Allocation and Private Markets. Explore the new Investing in Private Markets series:
1. Investing in Private Real Estate
With Prof. Cyril Demaria & Zoltan Szelyes
Gain an edge in selecting funds and assets with state-of-the-art practice:
✔ Understand how private real estate creates value in portfolios
✔ Gain insight into fund structures, strategies, and performance metrics
✔ Apply valuation methods to spot opportunities across global markets
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2. Investing in Private Debt
With Prof. Cyril Demaria & Olya Klüppel
Position for success in a fast-growing sub-asset class with insights that work:
✔ Understand private credit: grasp strategies, structures, and instruments shaping today’s market
✔ Bridge theory and practice: use frameworks and cases to assess opportunities, risks, and impact
✔ Think like an investor: position private credit for stronger diversification and returns
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3. Investing in Private Infrastructure
With Prof. Cyril Demaria & Tim Whittaker
Build expertise in infrastructure funds and investments through best-in-class knowledge:
✔ Understand the full value chain of private infrastructure investing, from strategy to valuation
✔ Master core strategies and tools to navigate global infrastructure markets
✔ Apply institutional insights into fund structures, performance, and portfolio construction
Learn more & enroll
Learn from the experts shaping the future of private markets. Explore the full series or contact AIF for personal advice: +31 20 246 7140 |info@aif.nl
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